NFL Week 4 Picks
February 5th NFL news ... NFL Week 4 Picks at nflweek4-picks.com
NEW YORK JETS (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2)
Sportsbook.com Line/Total: New England -9 & 44.5
The Patriots and Jets meet for the season rubber match in New England with an AFC Championship Game berth on the line. The Jets dominated the second half and frustrated Tom Brady in beating the Pats 28-14 in Week 2, but New England crushed New York 45-3 in the Week 13 rematch as Brady threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers.
Since that drubbing, the Jets have won road games in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, whom they beat 17-16 on a last-second field goal last week. New York ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (148 YPG), and actually rushed for 152 yards in the 45-3 loss in New England. LaDainian Tomlinson (914 yards, 4.2 YPC, 6 TD this year) has gained 831 total yards and five touchdowns in seven career games against New England. The Jets’ passing offense has been inconsistent, with Mark Sanchez throwing just one touchdown and six interceptions in his past five games, including three picks at New England. The Patriots pass defense currently ranks third-worst in the NFL with 259 passing YPG allowed, but their 25 interceptions lead the NFL.
Speaking of interceptions, Brady has not thrown one since Week 6, an NFL-record run of 335 passes in a row without a pick. He has 36 TD and 4 INT for the season and has only lost one home game in his past 29 starts, a 33-14 defeat to Baltimore in last season’s playoffs. Brady is also 8-1 at home in his postseason career with his only loss coming against the Ravens. The Patriots also rank ninth in the NFL in rushing (123 YPG), but the Jets boast the third-best run defense in football (91 YPG). The Patriots have turned the ball over just once in the past eight games, while forcing 24 turnovers in those eight contests. They are a perfect 8-0 over this span, winning by an average score of 32 to 16.
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GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-6) at ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3)
Sportsbook.com Line/Total: Atlanta -2.5 & NFL Betting Lines 43.5
The red-hot Packers travel south to face the NFC’s top-seeded Falcons on Saturday night. This is a rematch of Week 12, when Atlanta edged Green Bay 20-17 at home.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers earned his first career playoff win last Sunday when his team upset the Eagles 21-16. Rodgers threw for 180 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He connected with nine different receivers and seven of those were targeted more than once. That gives Rodgers 603 passing yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in two career playoff games. The big star for Green Bay last week was rookie RB James Starks who set a franchise rookie playoff record with 123 rushing yards.
Matt Ryan makes his second playoff start, and first at home where he is 20-2 as a starter. In his 2008 rookie season, Ryan had a disappointing postseason debut, throwing for 199 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT in a 30-24 loss at Arizona. This year, Ryan has been stellar, throwing for 3,705 yards, 28 TD and just 9 INT. WR Roddy White has 115 catches for 1,389 yards and 10 TD, while TE Tony Gonzalez has caught 70 balls for 656 yards and six scores. All three players will have to perform at the top of their game against the Packers’ fifth-best pass defense in the league (194 YPG). Atlanta also boasts a top-notch running game with Michael Turner who has rumbled for 1,371 yards and 12 touchdowns. He should find some holes in a Green Bay rushing defense allowing 115 YPG (18th in league).